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PREVER CENÁRIOS – O RH SABE FAZER ISSO?

Prever cenários

A área de Recursos Humanos tem sido exigida para ampliar seu conhecimento do negócio e ser entendedora das estratégias e já tem feito isso em boa parte das empresas. Será que olhar para dentro, conhecer o negócio, as metas das diferentes áreas e os desafios relacionados a pessoas dentro desse contexto, é suficiente? Acredito que o próximo passo para que o RH se torne realmente estratégico é aprender e desenvolver sua habilidade para analisar e prever cenários – ou seja, olhar para o mundo fora da empresa e procurar identificar para onde ele está caminhando e quais são as tendências que podem provocar mudanças na gestão de pessoas e nos negócios. Para isso os executivos de Recursos Humanos precisam ser competentes para fazer diagnósticos do momento atual e desenvolver pontos de vista sobre o futuro.

Analisar a realidade atual, procurar identificar tendências e com base nelas, refletir e ensaiar diversos futuros possíveis pode garantir vantagem competitiva para a empresa.

Os profissionais de RH precisam aprender a fazer um exercício de análise, de pesquisa, de ir a campo, de entender os novos rumos, observar comportamentos e desejos dos profissionais e a partir disso descobrir oportunidades e brechas em que possam atuar para que as ações de RH garantam estar em sintonia com as necessidades do negócio.

Segundo Michael Porter (1989) cenário é a “visão internamente consistente da realidade futura, baseada em um conjunto de suposições plausíveis sobre as incertezas importantes que podem influenciar o objeto”. Já para Van Der Heijden (1996), cenários constituem um conjunto de futuros razoavelmente plausíveis, mas estruturalmente diferentes, concebidos por meio de um processo de reflexão mais causal que probabilístico, usado como meio para a reflexão e a formulação de estratégias para atuar nos modelos de futuros.

 

Segundo estudo realizado por Sérgio C. Buarque e financiado com recursos do Programa Rede-Ipea, cinco perguntas básicas devem ser respondidas para o desenvolvimento de um cenário futuro:

  1. Que fatores estão amadurecendo na realidade atual que indicam uma tendência de futuro?
  2. Quais são as principais incertezas?
  3. Que hipóteses parecem plausíveis para a definição de eventuais e prováveis comportamentos futuros dessas incertezas centrais?
  4. Como podem ser combinadas as diferentes hipóteses para as diversas incertezas consideradas relevantes?
  5. Que combinações de hipóteses das incertezas podem ser consideradas consistentes para a formação de um jogo coerente de hipóteses?

Nesse mesmo estudo encontramos alguns princípios e diretrizes que devemos levar em conta ao prever tendências:

  1. Evitar o impressionismo e o imediatismo – não se deixar dominar e impressionar pelos problemas do cotidiano e pelas questões emergenciais que tendem a dramatizar a análise da realidade;
  2. Recusar consensos – duvidar e desconfiar do senso comum e das ideias dominantes;
  3. Ampliar e confrontar as informações – não se deixar levar e influenciar pelas informações e afirmações da imprensa, as quais são quase sempre dominadas pelos fatores de curto prazo;
  4. Explorar a intuição – procurar dar espaços para que a intuição e a sensibilidade das equipes possam fluir livremente na busca da identificação das tendências;
  5. Aceitar o impensável – recusar as posturas e atitudes inibidoras da criatividade e do pensamento não convencional;
  6. Reforçar a diversidade de visões – evitar grupos com grande uniformidade de visão de mundo e com tendência à convergência ou ao consenso;
  7. Ressaltar a análise qualitativa – antes de qualquer quantificação na descrição do futuro, é necessária a compreensão da natureza e da qualidade dessa realidade futura.

 

Embora não possam eliminar as incertezas na definição da trajetória futura, as metodologias de previsão de cenários contribuem para identificar as possibilidades de evolução da realidade.

 

Esse é mais um desafio para os profissionais de Recursos Humanos

 

Você que trabalha na área de RH, nos escreva contando como vem trabalhando para identificar as necessidades futuras, relacionadas às pessoas, na sua organização.

 

Yara leal de Carvalho

yara@questaodecoaching.com.br

www.questaodecoaching.com.br

https://www.facebook.com/questaodecoaching

 

 

 

 

 

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